Economic Trends That Will Shape 2023 And Beyond

Nouriel Roubini, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates LLC, was hosted by Naji Nehme, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Petiole Asset Management AG, to discuss market uncertainty, rising inflation and the looming recession. Below are highlights of the discussion:

Dec 16, 2022|General- 4 min

play button
  • We live in unexpected, unusual and unprecedented times of uncertainty. 2022 has been the year of threats within the economic, monetary and financial ecosystems, and we’ve witnessed geopolitical, environmental, health, supply chain and technological threats among others.

 

  • An important question this year was whether the rise in inflation worldwide was transitory or permanent. Central banks first predicted it was transitory, but inflation then reached double digits and turned out to be permanent.

 

  • Bad policies related to monetary, fiscal and credit easing, especially during the Covid-19 crisis, resulted in excessive inflation. There was also bad luck with a series of supply shocks that reduced economic growth and increased production costs. The three most important shock factors relate to the impact of:
    - Covid-19 on the production of goods and services, labor and global supply chains,
    - The invasion of Ukraine by Russia on the prices of energy, food, fertilizers and industrial metals, and
    - The continuous zero Covid policy in China on local production and the global supply chain.

 

  • Central banks hoped to reduce inflation to 2% without causing a recession. This looks nearly impossible now. The UK had double-digit inflation and is already entering a recession. The European Central Bank is likely to reduce growth expectations this week. We're not yet in a recession, but economic activity has slowed sharply.

 

  • Gold can be a great hedge against financial crises and political and geopolitical risks. Real estate performs better than equities amid moderate and rising inflation, provided that monetary policy is not much tighter. Technology firms are expected to revolutionize biotech, health care, and longevity among others, especially with sophisticated artificial intelligence and machine learning. They should outperform others over time.

 

  • No one becomes richer overnight by investing in stocks, crypto or other speculative investments. To achieve long-term wealth, one must study and work hard, save a meaningful fraction of their income, and invest in a diversified portfolio of assets with different risk levels.

Watch the full webinar above.

 

Disclaimer:

This presentation is provided to you by The Family Office Co. BSC(c) (“The Family Office”) for informational purposes only, and contains proprietary information that may not be reproduced, distributed to, or used by, any third parties without The Family Office’s prior written consent.

All information, figures, calculations, graphs and other numerical representations appearing in this presentation have not been audited and may be subject to change over time. Furthermore, certain valuations (including valuations of investments) appearing in this presentation are subject to change as they may be based on either estimates or historical figures that do not reflect the latest valuation. Although all information and opinions expressed in this presentation were obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. The information contained herein is not a substitute for a thorough due diligence investigation. Past performance is not indicative of and does not guarantee future performance. Exit timelines, prices and related projections are estimates only, and exits could happen sooner or later than expected, or at a higher or lower valuation than expected, and are conditional, among other things, on certain assumptions and future performance relating to the financial and operational health of each business and macroeconomic conditions.

The Family Office makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to any statistics or historical or current financial data, whether created by The Family Office through its own research or quoted from other sources. With respect to any such statistics or data delivered or made available by or on behalf of The Family Office, it is acknowledged that (a) the investor takes full responsibility for making its own evaluation of the materiality of the information and the integrity of the quoted source and (b) the investor has no claim against The Family Office.

Amounts in currencies other than the US Dollar are translated using prevailing market rates as calculated by The Family Office or its service providers and may differ from the rates used by banks. The rates are indicative only and do not reflect the rates at which The Family Office would be prepared to enter into any transactions with other parties.

Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes “forward looking statements,” which can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “plans,” “estimates,” “intend,” “continue,” or “believe,” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. To the extent this presentation contains any forecasts, projections, goals, plans and other forward looking statements, such forward looking statements are inherently subject to, known and unknown, significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond The Family Office’s control and may cause actual performance, financial results and other projections in the future to differ materially from any projections of future performance, results or achievements expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Investors should not place undue reliance on these forward looking statements. The Family Office undertakes no obligation to update any forward looking statements to conform to actual results or changes in The Family Office’s expectations, unless required by applicable law.

The Family Office makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to any financial projection or forecast With respect to any such projection or forecast delivered or made available by or on behalf of The Family office, it is acknowledged that (a) there are uncertainties inherent in attempting to make such projections and forecasts, (b) the investor is familiar with such uncertainties, (c) the investor takes full responsibility for making its own evaluation of the adequacy and accuracy of all such projections and forecasts so furnished to it and (d) the investor has no claim against The Family Office.

In addition, this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any instrument or other financial product, nor does it amount to a commitment by The Family Office to make such an offer at present or an indication of The Family Office’s willingness to make such an offer in the future.

The Family Office is a Category 1 Investment Firm regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain C.R.No.53871 dated 21/6/2004. Paid Up Capital: US$10,000,000. The Family Office only offers products and services to ‘accredited investors’ as defined by the Central Bank of Bahrain.


About The Family Office

Since 2004, The Family Office has been the wealth manager of choice for more than 200 ultra-high-net worth families and individuals, helping them preserve and growth their wealth through customized solutions in diversified alternatives and more. Schedule a call with our financial experts and learn more about our wealth management process.

Keep reading

Who we are

About us Investment Philosophy Board Members Leadership Team Our Locations
Contact Us

Manama Office:

9th Floor, Al Zamil Tower 305 Government Avenue Manama, Bahrain

bahrain flag+973 1757 8000

Dubai Office:

Central Park Towers DIFC Level 21, Office 21-43 Dubai, United Arab Emirates

uae flag+9714 8343863

Riyadh Office:

Suite 102, Signature Center Prince Turki bin Abdulaziz Al Awwal Road, Hittin Riyadh 13512-2110, Saudi Arabia

ksa flag+966 11 250 7720

MVPwebsiteEN

Ready to start your investment journey?

Click here to begin my.tfoco.com/register

The Family Office Co. B.S.C (c) is licensed as a category 1 Investment Firm by the Central Bank of Bahrain C.R.No.53871 dated 21/6/2004. Paid Up Capital: US$ 10,000,000. P.O. Box 18024, Manama, Bahrain.

FAQsCorporate Governance GuidelinesPrivacy PolicySitemap